The well being division on Monday stated it’s adequately ready to sort out a second wave of Covid-19 infections within the district, if one had been to reach within the coming weeks, or months. Officers, together with the chief medical officer of Gurugram and the district surveillance officer, clarified that whereas there have been no quick plans to ramp up surveillance for Covid-19 within the district, the present price (and the technique) of testing will proceed till additional orders from the state authorities. They added that the current technique to sort out Covid-19 infections within the state would suffice in case a spike in circumstances happens. Furthermore, 25% of all hospital beds in Gurugram may even stay reserved for Covid-19 sufferers, within the anticipation of the virus’ resurgence inside the group.
“At current, we don’t see any want to extend testing capabilities, however we aren’t going to cut back testing both. Whether or not we are going to see a second wave or not is a matter of debate, however for our half, we’re assured that the present surveillance system can be sufficient to assist us sort out one other rise in circumstances,” stated Dr Jai Prakash Sharma, the Built-in Illness Surveillance Programme’s district surveillance officer in Gurugram, who emphasised that the well being division’s “test-trace-isolate” coverage has been profitable at curbing transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus among the many district inhabitants.
Whereas Gurugram is conducting between 2,000 to 2,500 exams a day (with a few quarter comprising the extra dependable RT-PCR technique), the test-positivity price has been on the decline over the previous six weeks, now resting at beneath 5%. That is down from nearly 60% in mid-June. For a minimum of the previous 10 days, Gurugram has reported lower than 100 new circumstances of Covid-19 every day, with recoveries outweighing new positives. The restoration price stands at 91 %, up from 86 % three weeks in the past, whereas the mortality price now stands at 1.2% (with 125 deaths in whole), versus 1.4% three weeks in the past.
Whereas specialists had been much less reluctant to attribute Gurugram’s enchancment solely to public well being interventions, they agreed that growing testing might not be mandatory at this stage. Dr Prabhakaran Dorairaj, vp (analysis and coverage) on the Public Well being Basis of India, stated, “With rural districts now rising as the recent spots, it makes extra sense to divert assets there as an alternative of deploying them in city centres the place there was a perceptible decline in circumstances and deaths.”
Dorairaj additionally stated that this perceptible decline is a pure development of the epidemic, which has solely been slowed down by the lockdown. “However transmission of the virus has continued regardless of curbs, as proven by serological research from Delhi and Mumbai, the place as many as 23% of the sampled inhabitants has been uncovered to the virus. Gurugram, being part of Delhi-NCR, would possible have an identical proportion of inhabitants contaminated, and this may increasingly have reached a pure threshold after which the virus has slowed down,” he stated, clarifying that this speculation requires supporting proof, which is but to emerge.
This view was additionally echoed by a senior epidemiologist at a public college in Delhi who, requesting anonymity, stated, “It has but to be confirmed scientifically, however my hunch is that the slowdown in NCR is going on due to a lot of individuals having acquired immunity by way of publicity. In some fashions, the prevalence for herd immunity is as little as 25%. Faridabad’s reported case numbers, for instance, are rising not as a result of the outbreak there’s extra extreme, however as a result of the inhabitants is greater than Gurugram’s. Given what we learn about seroprevalence in massive cities now, the function of public well being vigilance must be to stopping deaths after they happen, not likely stopping the unfold of the virus.”
Gurugram’s chief medical officer, Dr Virender Yadav, was skeptical of a second wave, as it’s historically understood in epidemiology. “India as an entire remains to be going by way of a primary wave. India is so massive that we’ll see totally different states, and totally different districts inside states, attain their peaks at totally different instances. It’s good to be vigilant as a result of circumstances will naturally improve as individuals begin shifting about extra, however whether or not this counts as a ‘second wave’ might be debated. That time period comes from our expertise with the influenza virus, which is seasonal. We don’t know the seasonality of SARS-Cov-2 but. However, now we have sufficient hospital beds reserved to deal with a rise in circumstances, which can occur as individuals begin going about their regular lives.”