For the primary time in over two weeks, the district’s each day take a look at positivity fee (TPR) dipped to three.5 % on Monday, with simply 43 of the 1,217 new samples testing constructive for Covid-19.
For no less than three days now, the TPR — outlined because the ratio of constructive instances to the whole variety of checks performed — has inched under the 5% mark, which is the World Well being Organisation’s really helpful benchmark for lifting restrictions on public mobility (if sustained for over two weeks).
On July 15, Gurugram’s each day TPR hit a report low of three.2 %. Nevertheless, on the time, the advance was not constant. “We have been nonetheless seeing a median positivity fee of about 6 to eight %, however now the quantity is lowering each day. Even in hotspot areas resembling Sohna, the place the TPR was 11 % in mid-July, the positivity fee has now been introduced all the way down to about six % now,” stated Dr Jai Prakash Sharma, the Built-in Illness Surveillance Programme’s district surveillance officer within the Gururgam.
Well being division information confirmed a steep dip in take a look at positivity fee starting mid-June, which coincides with a rise in RT-PCR checks and the district opening its personal laboratory for testing of samples. Till then, nasal swabs taken from sufferers have been being despatched to one of many six different authorities labs within the state, with most samples being examined at PGIMS Rohtak.
From a median positivity fee of 60 % within the first week of June — when as many as 200 new instances have been rising every day — the quantity dipped to 26 % round June 25, after an improve in Gurugram’s testing capabilities. Then, with the introduction of fast, point-of-care antigen checks in late June, which allowed authorities to greater than double the variety of each day checks, Gurugram’s TPR (taken as a seven day shifting common) noticed a sharper dip over subsequent weeks, to as little as 5.35 % by July 19.
Authorities cited this development as proof that Gurugram is previous its first epidemiological ‘peak’ of the outbreak. Well being division officers, together with the district’s chief medical officer, in contrast the district’s trajectory of an infection to that of bigger metropolitan cities, which consultants now consider are previous their peaks.
“Delhi and Mumbai too have seen virtually simultaneous dips of their progress fee and positivity charges. By way of the severity of the outbreak, Gurugram’s absolute numbers are usually not that prime, however we even have a inhabitants that’s 20 instances lower than Delhi’s. We’ve got seen the identical development when it comes to how the epidemic has progressed, however at a smaller scale,” stated Dr Virender Yadav, chief medical officer, Gurugram, including that transmission of the virus itself has been halted to a major diploma.
The problem forward lies in sustaining the prevailing positivity fee so that ordinary life can resume, albeit with strict social distancing measures. The WHO’s advice for lifting curbs on mobility is a each day TPR of 5 % or much less, over a interval of no less than two weeks. “We’re assured of having the ability to meet this benchmark, nevertheless it signifies that we can not falter on testing in any respect now, in any other case it’s going to skew the progress that we’re witnessing. The second factor is social distancing, which is extra vital for folks to know. The pandemic isn’t over. Our behaviour nonetheless must be vigilant,” stated Dr Ram Prakash, district epidemiologist, Gurugram.
Cumulatively, a complete of 8.6 % of all samples examined from the district have come out constructive for the SARS-Cov-2 virus. This, officers stated, is an enchancment from about 17 % in mid-June, whereas Gurugram’s peak was underway. Whereas different cities like Delhi and Mumbai have since launched complete serological research mapping the prevalence of Covid-19 among the many group, an analogous evaluation for Gurugram is awaited.
Whereas no less than 361 IgG antibodies checks have been performed final month — on topics belonging to 18 susceptible demographic classes specified by the ICMR — solely 25 of them (or 7 %) have been discovered to be seropositive. “That is nonetheless a small pattern. We can make a concrete assertion on prevalence and an infection fatality fee as soon as a wider research is completed,” Dr Jai Prakash Sharma stated.
Common test-positivity fee (weekly):
June 1 – 7: 40.8%
June 8 – 14: 59%
June 15 – 21: 26%
June 22 – 28: 11%
June 29 – July 5: 6%
July 6 – 12: 4.78%
July 13 – 19: 5.35%
July 20 – 26: 6%
July 27 – August 2: 4.45%
Day by day TPR:
August 1: 4.9%
August 2: 4.17%
August 3: 3.5%